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Social Security Insolvency and the Steadily Unfolding Fertility Rate Problem - morningstar.com
The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report didn’t offer any new insights into a long-established problem. The key upshot from the report is that the insolvency date moved a bit closer than projected a year ago. For most who follow this ongoing saga, there is no surprise. The details associated with the continuing dismal forecasts for the depletion of the program’s asset reserves were similar to those in prior reports.
Looking long-term at the workforce projections for decades to come, it becomes clear that the demographic projections, and specifically the fertility assumptions outlined in section V.A.1 of the Trustees Report are cause for alarm. Alicia H. Munnell, in a post on moriningstar.com, takes a deep dive into this section of the report, noting that “U.S. fertility rates have generally been falling since the end of the baby boom in the mid-1960s, and that decline accelerated after the Great Recession.” Her analysis goes on to report that the rate has not rebounded as expected, and that continued low rates in this area could lead to further negative impact on Social Security’s financial picture. Read her post in full here…
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