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The Social Security Trustees’ Respectable Projection Record (Part 1)

(By – Charles Blahous)

For the last four years I have had the honor of serving as one of Social Security’s two public trustees (along with former CBO Director Robert D. Reischauer), co-authoring the annual trustees’ reports….

It is inevitable and appropriate that the trustees’ annual projections are publicly debated. An unusually rigorous and thoughtful critique was recently published by Konstantin Kashin, Gary King and Samir Soneji, in one form in the Journal of Economic Perspectives (JEP) and another in Political Analysis.Barron’s also published a widely-circulated article on this work. These articles offer a number of criticisms of the trustees’ projection record as well as the processes followed by the Social Security chief actuary’s office. As a currently-serving trustee I have been asked for my view of the Kashin-King-Soneji work. Read more…

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