The 2026 Trustees Report: Challenging the “Optimistic” Assumptions - American Enterprise Institute
The June 9 release of the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report confirmed what was already known…Social Security’s financial position is worsening. Given the increasing volume of warnings from the trustees over the past decade, coupled with the growing concerns expressed by virtually every thought leader, the full trust fund depletion date moving forward by a full quarter was no surprise. One can only hope that, at this point, the warning bell is ringing loudly enough to catch the attention of lawmakers in Washington and prompt serious focus on the problem.
The accelerated insolvency date, even if expected, was bad news. But if you take a deep enough look at the details of the Trustees’ Report, as American Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Andy Biggs did, the news probably could have been worse. In a recent analysis of the Trustees’ projections, Biggs questions some of the assumptions used to estimate the program’s actuarial deficit, suggesting that several key factors may be overly optimistic. Biggs raises specific questions about the birth-rate assumptions used to project future workforce size, as well as the workforce productivity growth assumptions and mortality projections included in the report. Failure to meet the projections advanced in the Trustees’ Report could result in “… more bad news to come.”
Read Biggs’ analysis, titled “The Social Security Trustees Report: It Could Have Been (Even) Worse,” here.