Is Social Security’s insolvency problem understated? - CATO Institute
While analysts and economists anxiously await the “official” 2026 Social Security Trustees report, concerns are being raised about the trajectory of certain key performance indicators. One such indicator is the U.S. population’s fertility rate, a marker of what the future workforce will look like. An article published today by Cato Institute’s Romina Boccia and Krit Chanwong suggests that the fertility rate projections included in the 2025 trustees report may be “unusually optimistic” and at odds with current trends.
The Boccia/Chanwong post, which you can access in full here, compares the trustees’ assumed growth in fertility rates —from 1.6 currently to 1.9 by the early 2024s — to less optimistic projections developed by the Congressional Budget Office and the U.S. Census Bureau. Other related projections associated with this general area are also judged to be overly optimistic, as in the case of overall population projections and the relationship to old-age dependency ratios, a measure of the ratio of the 65+ population to the segment age 20-64. (For an explanation of the old-age dependency ratio, click here.)
The authors conclude their article with comments on the importance of fertility rate assumptions in projecting Social Security’s future solvency, noting the size of the workforce and its role in a “pay as you go” structure.