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COLA Watch 2023…An Even Higher Projection!

We’re getting set to go into the third quarter of the year, and that of course is the measurement period Social Security uses to calculate what the cost-of-living adjustment for the coming benefit year will be. And no surprise, the forecasters are coming up with some pretty substantial possibilities, with the most recent one being the potential of a 10.8% bump in January. This latest projection comes from nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), and assumes a continuation of the pace of inflation we’ve seen since the third quarter of last year. We won’t really know the the actual COLA percentage until October, so we’ll keep sharing these forecasts as they come out. Read the most recent article by Veteran financial services industry journalist Brian Anderson, appearing on, here…

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Comments On This Topic

  1. A 7.3% cola is “in the bag” as of right now – June 29th, 2022. While there are 4 month’s worth of reporting still to come, the rate of inflation tends to moderate somewhat in those last 4 months, so, I don’t expect the cola to reach 10% at all. I give about a 20% chance to reach 9%, and a 40% chance to be in the 8.2% to 8.5% range. I would also say there’s about a 96 % chance of the cola reaching 7.5%, and a 75% chance of the cola being in the 7.5% to 8.2% range.

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