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COLA Watch 2024, With an Interesting Observation
We’re into the second half of August now, and in the past few weeks there has been a flurry of news reports offering opinions about how far the 2024 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will fall from its lofty 2023 increase of 8.7%. Most reports suggest an adjustment in the 3% range, and that appears likely at this point. Our modeling here at the AMAC Foundation Social Security Advisory Service tends to agree with this general projection; in fact, assuming that the August and September CPI-W readings increase at the same rate as the July reading increased from June, the COLA would be between 2.9% and 3.0%. No matter what, absent a major–and economically devastating–inflationary spike, the January 2024 COLA will fall substantially from the past two years of adjustments.
But wait! As Hurricane Hillary hits Southern California and as we hold our collective breath for the 2023 hurricane season peak yet to come, a report yesterday from Fox 26 Houston offers the suggestion that weather could have an upward effect on the COLA calculation. Check out their brief video clip here.
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