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ACCURACY OF MORTALITY PROJECTIONS IN TRUSTEES REPORTS
(Source - Social Security Administration)
Making accurate projections of future experience is always challenging. Even with the best-known methods, conditions that determine experience and trends can change in ways that are impossible to anticipate. In addition, experience can fluctuate markedly from one period to the next, making “turning points” in trends even harder to detect until well after they have happened. While cycles in some concepts are well understood (like those related directly to the state of the economy), projecting the timing and incidence of economic cycles is more art than science. Projections dependent on economic variables are therefore inherently uncertain. Read more…
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