In 2013, AMAC—The Association of Mature American Citizens—took a big step with the creation of the AMAC Foundation, Inc., a registered 501(c)(3) non-profit entity designed to serve Americans. The Foundation’s mission is to help protect and ensure the financial security, health, and social lives of current and future mature Americans, and to help Americans navigate the bewildering array of decisions they need to make.
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RobertIf you look at the CO2 data from 1958, you’ll find the level of CO2 was already 35ppm above pre-industrial lleves, small compared to what we’ve done since, but not insignificant. Land-use changes and other forms of AGW started before 1950 too.IPCC assumes all anthropogenic forcing factors beside CO (including land use changes, aerosols, other GHGs, etc.) essentially cancel one another out, so that the net radiative forcing for CO2 alone is roughly equal to the total anthropogenic forcing.If one agrees with the IPCC model-based estimate of 2xCO2 climate sensitivity (with all feedbacks) of 3.2b0C on average, we should have seen 0.5b0C warming from 280 to 315 ppmv (when Mauna Loa measurements started in 1958) plus another 1.0b0C from 1958 to today’s 390 ppmv, for a total anthropogenic warming of 1.5b0C.In actual fact we have only seen a bit less than half this amount of warming, so it appears that the 2xCO2 CS assumed by IPCC is exaggerated by >2:1 (if we assume that all warming was anthropogenic, as IPCC essentially does). If we assume that 50% of the observed warming can be attributed to the unusually high level of 20th century solar activity (per several solar studies) then the assumed 2xCO2 CS is high by ~4:1.Using the model-based IPCC 2xCO2 CS of 3.2b0C we should see an added 1.8b0C warming from today’s 390 ppmv to an estimated 580 ppmv by 2100. At the observed 2xCO2 CS, the expect GH warming to year 2100 would be 0.4b0C to 0.8b0C.That’s the order of magnitude range of GH warming we are talking about.Max